Mercados Financieros

Classroom copy frozen after the U.S. regular close on 28 August 2026. Prices move. This is not a live feed and not investment advice.

Today's verdict Verdict coverage 97%

CautionMKT 74 · EXE 88

Cut size, demand extra confirmation, or log a no-trade if the edge is not clean.

Plain reading: the market is not forbidden. The margin for error is thinner.

Example: you can watch. If you trade, size should be smaller and confirmation stricter.

1. Lights

Green = trading is allowed. Yellow = cut size. Red = protect capital.

2. Scale

Thesis and main risk sit on opposite pans. Trade only when the thesis outweighs the damage.

3. Black box

Read source, asOf, and warnings first. If the evidence is stale, the verdict drops to context.

Write a journal plan Log a wait / no-trade See the breakdown

SPY

771.10

MA20 768.10 · MA50 753.39 · MA200 709.41

VIX

14.51

Low · 1y percentile 4% · 5d trend -4.1%

Regime

UPTREND

Since 27 Aug 2026 · RSI(14) 47.4 · MACD bullish

Journal: write the rule before the trade

This page does not store a personal journal. The original kept a private store. Here you get the pedagogical mold, empty on purpose.

Field	Ask	If blank
Thesis	In one sentence: why this trade or wait follows the verdict.	Do not trade.
Invalidation	Which print, price, or behavior kills the plan.	Do not trade.
Stop / target	Numbers written before entry.	Do not trade.
Size	Account × risk %. The main failure is entering without a plan or moving the stop after.	Do not trade.
Psychological pattern	FOMO, revenge, anxiety, overconfidence, calm.	Name at least one.

Market health4/6

TrendBullish

VolatilityLow

BreadthMixed

MomentumStrong

LiquidityNeutral

SentimentGreed

Volatility 100

VIX 14.51 · VVIX 82.90 · Put/Call 1.14 · VIX %ile 4% · RV20 10.5% · RV60 14.0% · VIX−RV +4.0 pts · EM 5D 1.7%

Put/call is Cboe delayed SPY options, 41% coverage. Context only. It does not enter the audited verdict.

Momentum 75

Technology leads (+3.2%). Staples finish last (-1.4%). Best/worst spread +2.0%. 72% of the print sits near highs in this cut.

Trend 90

SPY vs MA20 768.10 / MA50 753.39 / MA200 709.41 · RSI 47.4 · MACD BULLISH · Strength 90

Breadth 35

% > MA200 69.5% (350/503) · % > MA50 53.9% (271) · % > MA20 44.1% (222) · A/D 0.44 (154 / 349) · H/L 43 / 17 · McClellan +32.0

Yahoo · 28 Aug 2026 20:04Z · 503/503

Macro 35

10Y 4.672% sideways · UUP 28.02 steady · Fed posture 50% neutral · 2s10s +0.39% · FOMC in 18d · SOFR 3.64% · DFF 3.63%

UUP is a dollar ETF, not the DXY index. The source terminal put it in the DXY slot.

SPY daily closes in this cut

16 Jun – 28 Aug 2026 · high 777.88 · low 728.99 · static SVG, not a live chart.

3-month correlations

	SPY	QQQ	VIX	UUP	TNX
SPY	1.00	0.92	-0.80	-0.39	-0.32
QQQ	0.92	1.00	-0.74	-0.31	-0.23
VIX	-0.80	-0.74	1.00	0.44	0.23
UUP	-0.39	-0.31	0.44	1.00	0.33
TNX	-0.32	-0.23	0.23	0.33	1.00

One-day sector rotation

Yahoo Finance · 28 Aug 2026 20:00Z

XLK

+3.16%

XLE

-0.22%

XLF

-0.65%

XLU

-0.76%

XLB

-0.82%

XLI

-0.85%

XLRE

-0.95%

XLC

-1.07%

XLY

-1.09%

XLV

-1.13%

XLP

-1.38%

How to read the spread

Spread = average of the top 3 minus average of the bottom 3. Under 3% the rally is broad. Over 8% the rotation is narrow.

Risk: VIX is not a magic light

VIX	Zone	Working read
< 15	Low	Calm. Helps swing setups if the other layers agree.
15–20	Normal	Ordinary noise.
20–30	Elevated	Cut size.
> 30	Extreme	Protect capital until the cut is readable again.

Percentile = (# of days with VIX ≤ current / 252) × 100. This cut: 4%. That is a left tail, not a promise that price rises.

Predict, then look

If the Treasury General Account (TGA) rises, what happens to net private liquidity?

Show the reading

TGA is Treasury cash at the Fed. When it rises, it absorbs reserves. When it falls, it can release them. ON RRP and WALCL can offset the move, which is why the liquidity pulse is not one series.

How the verdict is built

Score = Vol×0.25 + Mom×0.25 + Trend×0.20 + Breadth×0.20 + Macro×0.10

Classroom cut: 100×0.25 + 75×0.25 + 90×0.20 + 35×0.20 + 35×0.10 = 72.25, shown as 74 on the source terminal.

Weighted print ≥70 is high, 45–69 mixed, <45 low. Intraday tightens 10%. Today's lights can stay on caution when a layer is yellow, as breadth 35 and macro 35 are in this cut. The sliders recompute the weighted print only; they do not replace the lights.

Score lab (defaults from this cut)

74/100 · Caution

Vol 100 Mom 75 Trend 90 Breadth 35 Macro 35

Without JavaScript the sliders do not recompute. The formula and default values stay visible.

Institutional rails

How to read sovereign debt

Total debt matters, but pace, funding base, and interest load are the signal. Split total debt from debt held by the public. Cross Debt/GDP with average funding rate.

How to read Fed liquidity

WALCL alone is not enough. Subtract TGA and ON RRP to approximate net liquidity. M2 says whether broad money is coming along.

How to read Treasury funding

A high bid-to-cover usually means better bid. WAM says whether Treasury is extending or shortening. The bills/notes/bonds/TIPS/FRN mix matters for rollover.

How to read Polymarket

It is not official truth. It is a narrative sensor. If it diverges from the official print, the gap is a signal, not an answer. Quotes move and must not be frozen as current fact.

Glossary

Term	Definition	Why it matters
Debt to the Penny	Official Treasury series of outstanding debt, public and intragovernmental.	Most direct base for the nominal path.
Debt / GDP	Federal debt against the size of the economy.	Turns a huge nominal into a comparable ratio.
TGA	Treasury cash at the Fed.	Short-term drain or release valve.
ON RRP	Facility for parking cash at the Fed.	Its expansion changes net private liquidity.
WALCL	Fed total assets (H.4.1).	Summarizes QE/QT.
M2	Broad money aggregate.	Separates money growth from a balance-sheet twitch.
Bid-to-cover	Bids received versus amount offered.	Pulse of appetite for sovereign funding.
Money creation posture	Synthesis of balance sheet, reserves, TGA, RRP, and M2.	Avoids the binary "printing or not".

From zero

A market is where prices meet. A stock is a slice of a company. A bond is a loan. An ETF such as SPY is a basket. VIX is not an equity price. It is how expensive insurance on the S&P 500 has become.

The U.S. regular session opens 09:30 and closes 16:00 ET. Pre-market and after-hours exist, with thinner books. This cut uses delayed regular closes.

Swing looks at days or weeks. Intraday looks at minutes. The same 74 verdict, with tighter thresholds, can drop from caution to no-trade.

Hours, no live clock

Block	ET
Pre-market	04:00–09:30
Regular	09:30–16:00
After-hours	16:00–20:00

Sources and limits

Yahoo Finance — delayed prices, averages, sector ETFs.
Cboe delayed SPY options — put/call SPY, not the total-market ratio.
Cboe VIX
FRED — SOFR, DFF, WALCL, TGA, RRP, M2
Treasury Fiscal Data
Fed H.4.1
BLS · BEA · EIA

sources.json · llms.txt · snapshot.json

Generated as a classroom copy. Not investment advice.